A perfect political storm

Severe storms continue to roll in from the Atlantic and Britain is in the midst of a winter that has been nothing like a normal winter. Most likely it’s a sign of times to come.

Scientists - without being able to be exact about timing - have long warned us the changes currently happening to our climate would result in more extreme weather.

In the midst of this crisis David Cameron, prime minister, and his cabinet colleagues have been largely content to trade accusations and shift blame, like water off a duck’s back.

Successive governments have done little to plan for a changing climate and the prime minister's bizarre finger pointing underlies how bankrupt his government has become when faced with a challenge of global significance.

His pre-election promise to deliver one of the greenest governments ever has been consistently and systematically dismantled.

Environment secretary Owen Paterson's skepticism on climate change – a ludicrous trait for one in such a position – led him to slash 40% from his departmental spend on developing the UK's adaptation to global warming.

The cost of this winter’s flooding episode alone will dwarf the millions saved by spending cuts. Fixing things and preparing for future storms will run into billions - and that's before we count the cost to our farmers and food production.

Back in 2008, following flooding in his constituency, David Cameron stated that with climate change most people “accept that floods are likely to be more frequent”.

Despite government spending on flood defences under the coalition being cut by 27% another minister, Teresa May, described it no less than six times during a Radio 4 news interview as an "inherited" problem. Maybe she meant from Biblical times.

So, is history repeating itself? All that time ago it was God warning the world - and only Noah listened. Today it is the scientists. Our elected politicians clearly have a lot more listening, and soul searching, to do.

Early morning birdsong

Lighthouse on the cliff tops of Cromer, Norfolk.                                       Photo: Clive Simpson

Are you sleeping well on these long end of winter nights? If not then part of the answer may be in how dark your bedroom is.

As we travel through winter, with its emerging hint of longer days and promise of spring, it is appropriate to revisit the theme of some previous blog articles about night, darkness and the effect of artificial light on our modern lives.

The other morning I awoke midway through the night at around 3 am to hear birdsong outside. Normally a welcoming sound but at that hour, and with dawn still some four hours away, a little disconcerting. 

Birds singing during the ‘night’ is no longer such an infrequent occurrence. It is a somewhat troubling development and perhaps an indicator of wider factors at play. 

The birds it seems are often duped by our brightly lit streets, on-off ‘security’ lights and other forms of night-time illumination and general light pollution, into thinking daylight has arrived early.

And here’s the thing. All of us, birds included, are hard-wired to sleep in darkness, not in bedrooms full of light, computer monitors, digital alarm clocks or TV stand-by lights.

Chronic exposure to light at night is bad and, to understand why, we need to look into the past. Prior to the end of the Stone Age, humans were largely exposed to just two different kinds of natural light.

During the day we had the sun, while at night we had the moon and the stars, and perhaps the light from campfires. The binary day/night pattern was unrelenting, and our biological programming followed suit.

So why can't you get a good night's sleep? The problem is that many of us probably don't realise what makes us fall asleep in the first place. 

Compared to our ancestors our bodies’ circadian rhythms now also have artificial lighting at night (LAN) to contend with. Indoor lighting may be considerably less powerful than sunlight but it is certainly many orders of magnitude greater than star and moonlight. 

Melatonin suppression is key to understanding much of why LAN is bad for us, particularly in the winter months of the northern hemisphere.

This workhorse biochemical is produced at night when it is dark by the brain's pineal gland  to regulate our sleep-wake cycle. It lowers blood pressure, glucose levels and body temperature — key physiological responses responsible for restful sleep. 

The part of our brain that controls the body’s biological clock is known as the Suprachiasmatic Nucleus (SCN), a group of cells in the hypothalamus which respond to light and dark signals. 

The optic nerves in our eyes sense light and transmit signals to the SCN telling the brain when it is time to wake up, which also kickstarts other processes, like raising body temperature and producing hormones such as cortisol. 

Normally our cortisol levels are relatively low at night - allowing us to sleep - and higher during the day, allowing for the stabilisation of energy levels and the modulation of immune function. 

But LAN unnaturally elevates cortisol levels at night, which can then disrupt sleep and introduce a host of problems relating things like body-fat levels and insulin resistance. It also contributes to sleep debt and can disrupt the regulation of appetite.

If, on the other hand, our rooms are properly dark at night there is no optic signal to the SCN, so our bodies pump out the much needed melatonin. 

Light exposure during the previous day can also affect melatonin levels - studies have shown that exposure to bright room light before bedtime shortens melatonin duration by about 90 minutes compared to dim light exposure. In addition, exposure to room light during usual hours of sleep suppresses melatonin levels by more than 50 percent. 

So, even before you hit the hay, the light in your bedroom may be causing you problems. With the introduction of tablets (not the sleeping kind), smartphones, and energy-efficient LED light bulbs, it's an issue that's only getting worse. 

And just to add insult to injury, many modern LED (light-emitting diode) devices emit blue light which is especially good at suppressing melatonin. This is because melanopsin — a photo-pigment found in specialised cells of the retina involved in the regulation of circadian rhythms — is most sensitive to blue light. 

Regrettably, all this hormone and biochemical disruption is creating downstream effects — and studies are now showing correlations with weight gain problems, the incidence of cancer, depression and adverse effects on the immune system.

Essentially we need to keep our bedrooms as dark as possible and avoid blue light before sleep. 

You might want to think about this next time you leave even the dimmest lights on in your bedroom overnight — including your clock radio and the light that bleeds in through the curtains from nearby street lights. 

Why not try removing electronic equipment from the bedroom and using dimmer lights before before you turn in, as well as refraining from viewing TV, smartphones and computer screens for up to an hour before bed?

And if your bedroom is affected by artificial light from outside (and blackout curtains don’t do the trick) speak to your local council about street light shielding, and maybe your neighbour about realigning any problematic external floodlights.

Oh, and while we’re at it, switch off that bl**dy lighthouse! Sleep well, zzz zzz.

The Lighthouse Keeper is written by Clive Simpson - for more information or to get in touch click here

Why does it always rain on me?

The Prince of Wales launched an unprecedented attack on climate change sceptics this week, describing them as the "headless chicken brigade" and accusing powerful groups of deniers of engaging in “intimidation”.

Charles, who has long campaigned to raise awareness of global warming and has hit out at sceptics in the past, unleashed his latest salvo during an awards ceremony at Buckingham Palace for green entrepreneurs.

"It is baffling that in our modern world we have such blind trust in science and technology that we all accept what science tells us about everything - until, that is, it comes to climate science," the Prince said.

"All of a sudden, and with a barrage of sheer intimidation, we are told by powerful groups of deniers that the scientists are wrong and we must abandon all our faith in so much overwhelming scientific evidence.

"So, thank goodness for our young entrepreneurs here this evening, who have the far-sightedness and confidence in what they know is happening to ignore the headless chicken brigade and do something practical to help,” he stated.

Charles, who made his comments at the inaugural Prince of Wales Young Sustainability Entrepreneur Prize, has previously urged world leaders must "face down a storm of opposition from all sides" in order to tackle climate change.

Last year he described those who questioned the need to act as "the incorporated society of syndicated sceptics and the international association of corporate lobbyists”.

Prince Charles was criticised at the time by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a climate-sceptic ‘think-tank’ set up by former Conservative chancellor Nigel Lawson, which accused him of engaging in "apocalyptic rhetoric".

His latest comments came as it was announced that the deluge affecting much of Britain and Europe in recent weeks is officially the worst winter downpour over southern and central England in almost 250 years.

Rainfall for January - recorded at the Radcliffe Meteorological Station at Oxford University, the world's longest-running weather station - was greater than for any winter month since daily measurements began there in 1767.

The latest Met Office data also confirmed that the region stretching from Devon to Kent and up into the Midlands suffered its wettest January since its records began in 1910.

Ian Ashpole, of the Radcliffe Meteorological Observer, said the Radcliffe measurements went back more than twice as far as the Met Office records and provided a longer term indication of how things are changing.

A total of 146.9 mm of rain fell in January, beating the previous record of 138.7 mm in 1852. The new record is three times the average recorded for the month over the last two and a half centuries. 

It was also the wettest winter month – December, January or February – ever recorded, beating December 1914 when 143.3 mm fell.

In addition, the 45 day period from 18 December saw more rain at Radcliffe than for any such period in the observatory record. The total of 231.28 mm demolished the previous high of 209.4 mm, which fell from 1 December 1914.

For the UK, flooding has been identified as the most dangerous impact of climate change - and it is hitting harder and faster than expected. 

Scientists are now examining whether the current winder deluge is a result of the melting of the Arctic ice cap which has caused the jet stream to track further south, meaning more storms are channeled across the UK.

Prince Charles’ views are backed by mainstream science and it is reassuring to know that our future king is well versed in climate science - though it may be wrong to characterise the deniers in such a way.

Far from being ‘headless chickens’ they are part of an orchestrated and well-funded campaign with very clear objectives - to create a false debate and sow doubt in order to delay for as long as possible the kind of action required to limit CO2 emissions.

What they do is calculated and dangerous for the future of this planet and its people. Thank you, Prince Charles, for speaking up on behalf of normal people everywhere.

‘Why Does It Always Rain on Me?’ is the title of the hit song by Scottish band Travis, released in 1999 as the third single from their second studio album, ‘The Man Who’. It became the group's international breakthrough single and was their first Top 10 hit on the UK Singles Chart.

Warming trend continues

Lord Stern, who completed a review of the economics of climate change for the British government in 2006, says he should have been fiercer in his report.

Speaking at the start of the World Economic Forum in Davros, Switzerland, this week he said governments are “fooling themselves” if they think global temperature rises will only have modest economic impacts.

Stern says things have moved on in the eight years since his review. "I would have been much fiercer,” he admits. "Emissions have gone up faster than I thought and some of the effects of global warming are coming through more quickly, such as melting of the glaciers and the polar ice caps.”

He estimates global temperatures will be 4-5 C higher in the next century on present trends and that governments are being unrealistic if they think this will only have a modest impact on economies.

"The last time we had a change in global temperatures of this order of magnitude it was in the other direction. It was called the Ice Age,” Stern added.

According to new figures released by NASA the year just past tied with 2009 and 2006 for the seventh warmest year since 1880, continuing the long-term trend of rising global temperatures.

With the exception of 1998, the 10 warmest years in the 134 year record all have occurred since 2000, with 2010 and 2005 ranking as the warmest years on record.

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, which analyses global surface temperatures on an ongoing basis, released an updated report this week on temperatures around the globe in 2013. 

The comparison shows how Earth continues to experience temperatures warmer than those measured several decades ago.

The average temperature in 2013 was 14.6 Celsius, which is 0.6 C warmer than the mid-20th century baseline. The average global temperature has risen about 0.8 C since 1880, according to the new analysis. Exact rankings for individual years are sensitive to data inputs and analysis methods.

"Long-term trends in surface temperatures are unusual and 2013 adds to the evidence for ongoing climate change," said GISS climatologist Gavin Schmidt at a NASA press conference on Tuesday.

"While one year or one season can be affected by random weather events, this analysis shows the necessity for continued, long-term monitoring.”

Scientists emphasise that weather patterns will always cause fluctuations in average temperatures from year to year but say the continued increases in greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere are driving a long-term rise in global temperatures. 

Each successive year will not necessarily be warmer than the year before, but with the current level of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists expect each successive decade to be warmer than the previous.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that traps heat and plays a major role in controlling changes to Earth's climate. It occurs naturally and is also emitted by the burning of fossil fuels for energy. 

Driven by increasing man-made emissions, the level of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere at present is higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years.

The carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere was about 285 parts per million in 1880, the first year in the GISS temperature record. By 1960, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, was about 315 parts per million. This measurement peaked last year at more than 400 parts per million.

While the world experienced relatively warm temperatures in 2013, the continental United States experienced the 42nd warmest year on record, according to GISS analysis. For some other countries, such as Australia, 2013 was the hottest year on record.

The temperature analysis produced at GISS is compiled from weather data from more than 1,000 meteorological stations around the world, satellite observations of sea-surface temperature and Antarctic research station measurements, taking into account station history and urban heat island effects. 

Software is used to calculate the difference between surface temperature in a given month and the average temperature for the same place from 1951 to 1980. This three-decade period functions as a baseline for the analysis. It has been 38 years since the recording of a year of cooler than average temperatures.

The GISS temperature record is one of several global temperature analyses, along with those produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in the US. These three primary records use slightly different methods but overall their trends show close agreement.

Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go

The dreaded Monday morning alarm clock takes on an extra dimension tomorrow when it will rouse a slumbering spacecraft that is hurtling back towards our Sun from the darkest reaches of the solar system. 

ESA’s Rosetta probe is chasing comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko at intergalactic speeds and later this year will close in for a high speed rendezvous with the comet before ejecting a lander called Philae towards its surface.

Since its launch in 2004, Rosetta has made three flybys of Earth and one of Mars to build up enough speed and get on a trajectory towards the comet. It has also encountered asteroids Steins and Lutetia along the way.

Operating on solar energy alone, the spacecraft was placed into a deep space hibernation in mid-2011 as it cruised far from the Sun and out towards the orbit of Jupiter. 

To prepare for its long sleep, Rosetta was oriented so that its solar arrays faced the Sun and put into a once per minute spin for stability. The only devices left running were its computer and several heaters.

Thirty-one months later, Rosetta’s orbit has brought it back to within ‘only’ 673 million km of the Sun where there is finally just enough solar energy to power the spacecraft fully again. It is time to wake up.

Tomorrow morning Rosetta’s computer is programmed to carry out a sequence of events to re-establish contact with Earth, starting with an ‘alarm clock’ at 10:00 GMT. Immediately afterwards, the spacecraft’s star trackers will begin to warm up, taking around six hours.

Then its thrusters will fire to stop the slow rotation and a slight adjustment will be made to Rosetta’s orientation to ensure that the solar arrays are still facing directly towards the Sun, before the star trackers are switched on to determine the spacecraft’s attitude.

Once Rosetta has regained its bearings the spacecraft will turn directly towards Earth, switch on its transmitter and point its high-gain antenna to send a signal to announce that it is awake.

Because of Rosetta’s vast distance – just over 807 million km from Earth – it will take 45 minutes for that signal to reach ground stations so the first opportunity for receiving a signal on Earth is expected between 17:30 and 18:30 GMT.

Once mission controllers have verified Rosetta’s health, each of its scientific instruments will be switched back on and checked, an effort that will take several months as the spacecraft continues to eat up the remaining 9 million km separating it from the comet.

During May the spacecraft must pull off a tricky braking manoeuvre to slow its approach relative to the speed comet to walking speed - and if that goes to plan it will cruise alongside in August.

Once alongside the 4 km wide comet, Rosetta will steer itself into an orbit that takes it within 20 km of the surface. From here, its cameras will map the surface and search for a landing spot for Philae.

With gravity too weak to hold it on the surface, the sophisticated box of electronics and sensors attached to spindly legs will cling to its interplanetary roller coaster with an explosive metal harpoon.

Comets like 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko probably formed some 4.6 billion years ago and are considered to be the primitive building blocks of the Solar System that may have helped ‘seed’ Earth with water.

In a spectacular series of firsts for space exploration, Rosetta will become the first space mission to rendezvous with a comet, the first to attempt a landing, and the first to follow a comet as it swings close to the Sun.

Many fundamental questions about these enigmatic and ancient objects of the solar system remain - but first there is that all important wake-up call.

A note on the title of this report - ‘Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go’ was a two-million-selling  pop song from the early 1980s by the English pop duo Wham! Written and produced by George Michael, it became the group’s first number one hit in both America and the UK.

Space Station top ten

The Obama administration has given NASA the go-ahead to operate the International Space Station (ISS) until at least 2024 but many of its scientific achievements to date remain largely unsung to the population at large. 

The US decision means partner agencies, US government establishments and private-sector researchers from around the world can now count on at least another decade of orbital operations.

Bill Gerstenmaier, chief of space operations at NASA Headquarters, said the expanded lifetime will encourage increased commercial use of the lab complex, solidify the commercial launch market and provide critical insights into technology development and human physiology needed for eventual flights to deep space targets like Mars.

But what of the scientific value of such a challenging, and ultimately costly, enterprise like the International Space Station?

In September at the 64th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in Beijing, China, delegates were treated to an inspiring presentation by NASA’s Dr Julie Robinson, International Space Station Program Scientist at the Johnson Space Center (JSC).

Dr Robinson, who coordinates the International Space Station (ISS) science programme and is author of ‘ISS Benefits for Humanity’ (published by NASA in 2012) spoke on the ‘Top 10 Research Results from Space Station’.

She provided historical context to her personal choice by stating the fundamental reason humans explore is not being motivated  by the advancement of science.

“Early explorers travelled the world to exploit economic opportunities not to inspire their children about it,” she said. “Explorers are responsible for pushing the boundaries and the scientists follow behind.”

Dr Robinson described the ISS as “the most complex machine ever built by humans” and told delegates that it was easy to be “uniformed” about some of the great results coming from the Space Station.

“The Space Station is unique in that it supports almost every scientific discipline in some way,” she explained.

“Ultimately it will be judged on its engineering achievements, international achievements and science achievements. We are now in the research stage and this is very important to our stakeholders - 69 countries have participated in ISS utilisation so far.” 

In selecting a personal ‘top 10',  Dr Robinson took into account a variety of criteria - scientific journal quality, comments and reviews by other scientists, cases where novel information was presented, and benefits to humankind - all of which she described as important considerations in terms of research legacy.

Number 10 - preventing loss of bone mass in space through diet and exercise; if astronauts do the right set of exercises, have the correct amount of vitamin D and calories in their diet then they come home okay. Resistive exercise now helps treat osteoporosis cases on Earth.

Number 9 - understanding the mechanism of osteoporosis and developing new drugs to treat it. The first new drugs for treating muscle waste are now on the market as a result of research in microgravity.

Number 8 - Hyper-spectral imaging for water quality in coastal bays. A ‘gold standard’, according to Dr Robinson, which also allows scientists to distinguish between sediment pollution on satellite imagery.

Number 7 - Colloid self-assembly using electron fields for nano particles, a process which is impacting manufacturing processes on Earth.

Number 6 - New process of cool flame combustion - an unexpected and novel result. In microgravity, flames burn differently forming flaming spheres that turn out to be mini-labs for combustion research. Unlike flames on Earth, which expand greedily when they need more fuel, flame balls let the oxygen come to them.

Number 5 - A pathway for bacterial pathogens to become virulent; bacteria can become more virulent in space. Studying this helps develop new treatments and is an example of where biological science can make a significant advance by going into a different environment.

Number 4 - educational outreach, with 43 million students from all over the globe.

Number 3 - Dark matter is still out there according to the first data gathered from the ISS Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) the most sophisticated detector of gamma cosmic rays that has ever been built.

Number 2 - Robotic assistance for brain surgery - the technology that went into developing neuroArm, the world’s first robot capable of performing surgery inside magnetic resonance machines, was born of the Canadarm.

Number 1 - A new targeted method of chemotherapy drug delivery with medical trials now underway as a result of ISS medical developments. It involves a single step process forming tiny liquid-filled, biodegradable micro-balloons containing various drug solutions (a process called microgravity micro-encapsulation) that can provide better drug delivery for tumours.

Dr Robinson concluded: “The benefits I have selected serve as examples of the Space Station’s potential as a ground-breaking scientific research facility. 

“The ISS advances the state of scientific knowledge of our planet, looking after our health, and providing a space platform that inspires and educates the science and technology leaders of tomorrow.

“These benefits will drive the legacy of the ISS as its research strengthens economies and enhances the quality of life here on Earth for all people.”

The above article is based on one of a series of daily reports from the International Astronautical Congress 2013 held in Beijing, China, written by Clive Simpson for the Paris-based International Astronautical Association (IAF) and first appearing on the IAF website

Maximum benefit

Over the past year the Lighthouse Keeper has been following the writings and posts of fellow blogger Joshua Becker on his excellent Becoming Minimalist website.

It’s been an illuminating journey, contrasting the commercialism of modern life with an approach of de-cluttering life in general and owning less.

Becker describes minimalist living as “counter-cultural” because it is contrary to every magazine, newspaper of TV advertisement and because society prides itself on the accumulation of possessions.

“But there is far more joy to be found in the pursuit of fewer possessions than can ever be discovered in the pursuit of more,” he says.

The first month of any year is often a time when we look back on the past 12 months and evaluate the direction of our lives – maybe changing, adopting new habits, or making some healthy changes – and in his New Year post Becker asks us to consider ‘11 Resolutions for a Better You - Proven by Science’.

His key points are summarised below but if it’s wetted your appetite for more you can catch the full version, or browse the Becoming Minimalist website, by clicking here.

Exercise
Most of us recognise the benefits of physical exercise - healthy bodies, healthy minds and healthy confidence. Some studies indicate exercise contributes to a positive body image even prior to any body weight or shape change - with as little as two weeks of regular exercise.

Less television
Those seeking intentionality realise the negative influence television has on their mind - it impacts our worldview, encourages consumerism, oversimplifies life and results in less life satisfaction. Deciding to cut back in the coming year may be one of the best decisions you could ever make.

Go outside
According to recent studies published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, simply spending time outside with nature contributes to increased energy, wards off feelings of exhaustion and results in a heightened sense of well-being.

Read fiction
Researchers have discovered that reading results in heightened connectivity and brain activity - sometimes even up to five days after the book has been completed.

Give
Numerous studies show charitable giving boosts happiness and reduce stress - especially when the generosity promotes positive social connection. If you don’t already, find a cause or person you believe in and offer consistent monthly support. They will benefit. You will benefit. And the world will be a better place.

Serve
Volunteering provides great value for our lives and the lives of those we choose to enrich. Volunteers often feel like they have more time and are more efficient, as well as feeling better about themselves, experiencing lower stress levels, and developing a deeper connection with others.

Buy less
Research suggests that buying life experiences rather than material possessions leads to greater happiness for both the consumer and those around them. Decide today to spend less money this year on possessions and more money on meaningful, memorable experiences.

Display gratitude
Psychologists state that one of the greatest contributing factors to overall happiness in your life is how much gratitude you show. Getting started is so easy and beneficial. It could be the easiest decision you make all year.

Practice smiling
A study conducted at the Michigan State Business School found that customer service professionals who fake a smile throughout the day worsen their mood. But people who smile as a result of cultivating positive thoughts improve their mood and withdraw less.

Stop and play
Our world is becoming increasingly busy and the temptation to measure our worth by external factors continues to grow. As a result, taking time to slow down and just play is becoming increasingly rare. But play is fun and enjoyable. Play enriches the lives of children by exercising their mind and body. And it has the same positive effect on adults.

Be happy
Two experimental studies published in The Journal of Positive Psychology this past year offer ground-breaking research on the cultivation of happiness. Based on the experiments, participants who listened to ‘happy’ or uplifting music and actively tried to feel happier reported the highest level of positive mood afterwards - more so than those who simply listened to the music. In other words, determining to be happy is a productive decision towards achieving it.

Of course, changing everything at once is a recipe for failure so Becker suggests choosing just one or two - and giving them a month-long try out.

The Lighthouse Keeper, having heartily digested the recommendations over a cup of strong early New Year coffee and a leftover Christmas mince pie or two, can definitely see life-changing merit in all 11 resolutions – but which ones to pick?

I'm also tempted to complete the list by adding a couple of my own. Drink more water to keep the body well hydrated at all times and don’t neglect your spiritual side. Both bring untold and life-transforming benefits.

Thank you, Mr Becker, for a year of inspiring and thought-provoking reads. Here’s to 2014 – toasted, of course, with a glass of H20!