THE chief of global satellite telecommunications company Inmarsat has
issued a stark warning to space leaders calling for immediate action to
stem the proliferation of space debris in Earth orbit.
Counselling
against complacency, Raveej Suri, Inmarsat’s Chief Executive Officer,
said: “So far we have been lucky that we haven’t seen any major
collisions in space, but we would be foolish to rely on luck alone.”
His
wake up call to governments and industry was delivered during a
no-holes-barred keynote speech to more than 100 delegates at the New
Space Atlantic Summit, organised by the Portugal Space Agency (PSA) in
Lisbon this week.
“It would be irresponsible of me not to call
out that I believe we are at a crisis point regarding space
sustainability which requires immediate and decisive action,” he stated.
“Every year that we fail to act increases the cost of future actions
and makes it more technically difficult to deliver an effective cleanup
strategy.”
At Inmarsat we do not take the operating environment
for granted but I am concerned that the world is now entering a system
wide emergency, with low Earth orbits (LEO) particularly vulnerable, and
we no longer have the luxury of patient action.
Suri, who
transferred from Nokia to head up the London-based satellite services
provider in 2021, welcomed moves in the past year which have seen more
countries signing up to the ASAT (anti-satellite testing) ban, ESA
proposing a zero space debris policy by 2030, a new five-year rule for
satellite disposal after reaching the end of their operational life, and
space sustainability policy initiatives from the UK.
But he said
even these initiatives were “insufficient” compared to the gravity of
the problem, citing examples of increasing space debris proliferation
and the rising number of orbital near misses - including one by two
defunct satellites earlier this year that came within 10 m of each
other.
Suri also highlighted the work of Prof Hugh Lewis at the
University of Southampton who recently released data that showed in
March alone SpaceX Starlink satellites performed more collision
avoidance manoeuvres in a single month than in the entire first 2.5
years of Starlink deployment.
Based on statistical models
produced by the ESA space debris office, it is estimated that there are
36,500 objects larger than 10 cm, one million objects between one to 10
cm and an extraordinary 130 million objects between 1 mm and 1 cm.
These
tiny objects could be anything from paint flecks from rockets to small
fragments created from in-orbit impact, but travelling faster than a
bullet they can still cause an incredible amount of damage to something
else in orbit.
“These numbers and the risk to incumbent
services will only increase as tens of thousands of satellites are
launched into orbit over the coming years, many as part of so called
mega constellations in low Earth orbit,” he said.
“So far we
have been lucky but we would be foolish to rely on luck to keep to space
commons - areas and resources that fall outside national jurisdiction -
open for sustainable use. We urgently need to align to a shared
understanding of the problem and agree on principals of action.”
Suri
proposed a series of guiding tenets - understanding the constraints of
the operating environment, bringing scientific consensus to orbital
capacity, and providing equitable and fair solutions to benefit all - to
help address the problem.
He also suggested that equity
considerations should reach beyond the boundaries of space into Earth’s
atmosphere where space environmentalism is already asking questions
about the effect of industrialising the de-orbiting of spacecraft and
what that does to the precipitous chemical balance of the upper
atmosphere.
“We need to make gains in each area, we need to
acknowledge that space is finite and move to an urgent scientific
consensus on orbital capacity parameters,” he said. “We need to create
the means to deal with space debris and we need to keep equity
considerations front of mind.”
Whilst acknowledging that UN and
ITU (International Telecommunication Union) processes are important, he
declared it was time for a “like-minded group of countries” to commit
collectively to shared principles, to share regulations and coordinating
mechanisms for safe space operations and orbital development.
“This
could be achieved by countries such as the UK, US and those in the EU
coming together to agree a baseline understanding of the issues and set
out basic standards,” he argued. “The collective influence of such a
grouping would create a powerful precedent for new entrants to space and
those that wish to do business with us.”
He said one of the
most effective measures would be to make market access reliant on
sustainable and responsible behaviour. “Of course, withholding rights
should not be done lightly and it is not a substitute for a global
regime which could give full meaning to equity considerations.
“As
the CEO of a satellite communications company, space sustainability is
an existential issue for my industry. Taking immediate action is not
only the right thing to do, it is the smart thing to protect
considerable global investment in R&D and infrastructure to ensure
that we will continue to operate and provide valuable services well into
the future.
“Likewise the stakes for governments are extremely
high. The global economy is dependent on satellite-enabled
applications, now taken for granted as part of our daily lives whether
for safe transit, banking or complex logistics.
“I submit to
you that 2023 is a make or break year for our future as a space faring
community. Governments and leaders need to take urgent action and demand
that operators maintain an open, predictable and sustainable space
commons. The stakes have never been higher and the time to act is now.”
Keynotes
and panel discussions at the Summit, held at the premises of the
European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and the sixth in series of events
focused on the theme of ‘A Global Effort for Space Sustainability’.
Speakers
included Peter Martinez, Executive Director of the Secure World
Foundation, who drew parallels with the development of the environmental
movement and said space sustainability needed a similar multi-faceted
approach.
International Institute of Space Law (ISSL) President
Kae-Uwe Schrogl referred to “out-dated and unenforceable laws” governing
outer space. “Sustainability can only be reached on a level playing
field and at present we don’t have an architecture for space law. Flags
of convenience cannot be allowed,” he stated.
Daniel Smith, CEO
of Edinburgh-based AstroAgency, a strategic space marketing and media
firm, brought an industry perspective to delegates and urged them to
"grasp the opportunity" while there was still time.
“The last
thing we really need are more strategies without action,” he said. “The
NewSpace economy can be shaped by new space players if we act in unity
now.”
Portugal Space Agency president Ricardo Conde described
sustainability as “underpinning the country’s expanding efforts in
space” and said the agency was targeting “pragmatic solutions” that
would help the country tackle today’s most pressing problems, including
the impacts of climate change.
“Today, two of the big long-term
motivations for space exploration are mining and the extension of
territory. Portugal is not interested in mining other worlds and we
don't have a vision for the geopolitical extension of territory. We
will use our tools and expertise to make space work in a sustainable
way."
