Space debris problem needs urgent action

 

THE chief of global satellite telecommunications company Inmarsat has issued a stark warning to space leaders calling for immediate action to stem the proliferation of space debris in Earth orbit.

Counselling against complacency, Raveej Suri, Inmarsat’s Chief Executive Officer, said: “So far we have been lucky that we haven’t seen any major collisions in space, but we would be foolish to rely on luck alone.”

His wake up call to governments and industry was delivered during a no-holes-barred keynote speech to more than 100 delegates at the New Space Atlantic Summit, organised by the Portugal Space Agency (PSA) in Lisbon this week.

“It would be irresponsible of me not to call out that I believe we are at a crisis point regarding space sustainability which requires immediate and decisive action,” he stated. “Every year that we fail to act increases the cost of future actions and makes it more technically difficult to deliver an effective cleanup strategy.”

At Inmarsat we do not take the operating environment for granted but I am concerned that the world is now entering a system wide emergency, with low Earth orbits (LEO) particularly vulnerable, and we no longer have the luxury of patient action.

Suri, who transferred from Nokia to head up the London-based satellite services provider in 2021, welcomed moves in the past year which have seen more countries signing up to the ASAT (anti-satellite testing) ban, ESA proposing a zero space debris policy by 2030, a new five-year rule for satellite disposal after reaching the end of their operational life, and space sustainability policy initiatives from the UK.

But he said even these initiatives were “insufficient” compared to the gravity of the problem, citing examples of increasing space debris proliferation and the rising number of orbital near misses - including one by two defunct satellites earlier this year that came within 10 m of each other.

Suri also highlighted the work of Prof Hugh Lewis at the University of Southampton who recently released data that showed in March alone SpaceX Starlink satellites performed more collision avoidance manoeuvres in a single month than in the entire first 2.5 years of Starlink deployment.

Based on statistical models produced by the ESA space debris office, it is estimated that there are 36,500 objects larger than 10 cm, one million objects between one to 10 cm and an extraordinary 130 million objects between 1 mm and 1 cm.

These tiny objects could be anything from paint flecks from rockets to small fragments created from in-orbit impact, but travelling faster than a bullet they can still cause an incredible amount of damage to something else in orbit.

“These numbers and the risk to incumbent services will only increase as tens of thousands of satellites are launched into orbit over the coming years, many as part of so called mega constellations in low Earth orbit,” he said.

“So far we have been lucky but we would be foolish to rely on luck to keep to space commons - areas and resources that fall outside national jurisdiction - open for sustainable use. We urgently need to align to a shared understanding of the problem and agree on principals of action.”

Suri proposed a series of guiding tenets - understanding the constraints of the operating environment, bringing scientific consensus to orbital capacity, and providing equitable and fair solutions to benefit all - to help address the problem.

He also suggested that equity considerations should reach beyond the boundaries of space into Earth’s atmosphere where space environmentalism is already asking questions about the effect of industrialising the de-orbiting of spacecraft and what that does to the precipitous chemical balance of the upper atmosphere.

“We need to make gains in each area, we need to acknowledge that space is finite and move to an urgent scientific consensus on orbital capacity parameters,” he said. “We need to create the means to deal with space debris and we need to keep equity considerations front of mind.”

Whilst acknowledging that UN and ITU (International Telecommunication Union) processes are important, he declared it was time for a “like-minded group of countries” to commit collectively to shared principles, to share regulations and coordinating mechanisms for safe space operations and orbital development.

“This could be achieved by countries such as the UK, US and those in the EU coming together to agree a baseline understanding of the issues and set out basic standards,” he argued. “The collective influence of such a grouping would create a powerful precedent for new entrants to space and those that wish to do business with us.”

He said one of the most effective measures would be to make market access reliant on sustainable and responsible behaviour. “Of course, withholding rights should not be done lightly and it is not a substitute for a global regime which could give full meaning to equity considerations.

“As the CEO of a satellite communications company, space sustainability is an existential issue for my industry. Taking immediate action is not only the right thing to do, it is the smart thing to protect considerable global investment in R&D and infrastructure to ensure that we will continue to operate and provide valuable services well into the future.

“Likewise the stakes for governments are extremely high. The global economy is dependent on satellite-enabled applications, now taken for granted as part of our daily lives whether for safe transit, banking or complex logistics.

“I submit to you that 2023 is a make or break year for our future as a space faring community. Governments and leaders need to take urgent action and demand that operators maintain an open, predictable and sustainable space commons. The stakes have never been higher and the time to act is now.”

Keynotes and panel discussions at the Summit, held at the premises of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and the sixth in series of events focused on the theme of ‘A Global Effort for Space Sustainability’.

Speakers included Peter Martinez, Executive Director of the Secure World Foundation, who drew parallels with the development of the environmental movement and said space sustainability needed a similar multi-faceted approach.

International Institute of Space Law (ISSL) President Kae-Uwe Schrogl referred to “out-dated and unenforceable laws” governing outer space. “Sustainability can only be reached on a level playing field and at present we don’t have an architecture for space law. Flags of convenience cannot be allowed,” he stated.

Daniel Smith, CEO of Edinburgh-based AstroAgency, a strategic space marketing and media firm, brought an industry perspective to delegates and urged them to "grasp the opportunity" while there was still time.

“The last thing we really need are more strategies without action,” he said. “The NewSpace economy can be shaped by new space players if we act in unity now.”

Portugal Space Agency president Ricardo Conde described sustainability as “underpinning the country’s expanding efforts in space” and said the agency was targeting “pragmatic solutions” that would help the country tackle today’s most pressing problems, including the impacts of climate change.

“Today, two of the big long-term motivations for space exploration are mining and the extension of territory. Portugal is not interested in mining other worlds and we don't have a vision for the geopolitical extension of territory. We will use our tools and expertise to make space work in a sustainable way."

 

Sustainability lifeline

 

 

SPACE is a resource to be exploited for the benefit of all and undoubtedly holds many of the keys to humanity’s future. But though it might appear boundless and infinite it will not ultimately be to our advantage if we do not manage it in a sustainable way.

One of the most significant issues is the accumulation of space debris and, in this context, the first months of 2021 witnessed an unprecedented number of rocket launches. SpaceX alone notched up some 20 Falcon 9 launches between January and the end of May, a notable achievement in itself.

What is less clear, given the majority of these launches carried payloads of multiple smallsats to feed the company’s planned 12,000-strong Starlink constellation, is how much they are exacerbating the growing and still largely unaddressed debris problem.

There are still many unknowns relating to the proliferation of objects in Earth orbit, a fact that was highlighted by presentations at the annual European Space Debris Conference held virtually at the end of April [2021].

One paper identified a potential link between space junk and climate change - increasing levels of carbon dioxide could be lowering the density of the upper atmosphere, which may diminish the natural process whereby low Earth orbiting debris is naturally pulled downwards before it incinerates in the thicker, lower atmosphere.

Scientists studying this unexpected link between climate change and space debris propagation speculate that, in a worst case scenario, it could lead to increased orbital lifetimes of up to 40 years.

This could boost the amount of space debris as much as 50 times by the end of the century.
Such findings may heap further difficulties on the already complex problems faced by regulators wrestling with satellite operators amidst the headlong rush to deploy megaconstellations by the likes of SpaceX, Amazon and OneWeb in the west, as well as the Russian Sfera and Chinese Hongyan systems.

So how do we make space and our activities in it sustainable? Up to now the rules and regulations governing this are relatively weak. 

To be effective, space law regulations - backed by monitoring and a means of enforcement - must prevent as many potentially dangerous situations as possible from occurring. Legislation also needs to lay out a framework for responsibility and liability for when things go wrong.

Space law has largely worked so far because any issues have been few and far between and, on the whole, have been dealt with diplomatically.

As global populations grapple with the daily effects of climate change and pollution, the lessons of how we have mismanaged the environment and its resources are plain to see.

The same is true for space, even if the outcomes of our inactions today may only become apparent in the future.

While space sustainability has been a topic of discussion among academics and technologists for decades, the importance of protecting Earth’s orbital environment and the expanding sphere of our new domain has never been more relevant.

In the absence of robust, internationally agreed and long-term sustainability laws and guidelines, it is doubtful that commercial space companies, and some state players, can be relied on to police themselves in the space realm.

The questions surrounding space debris and the threat it poses become more urgent with every launch and, at present, the solutions on any level are far from certain. Now is the time to make sustainability a priority.

This Editorial by Clive Simpson was first published in ROOM Space Journal (#28), Summer 2021.

Overcoming Earth’s doomsday scenario

The latest issue of ROOM - available now

IF THE increase in space debris in Earth orbit remains uncontrolled and unregulated, it will eventually render outer space useless for the whole of humanity - a sober warning from Prof Ram Jakhu in the Winter 2019/20 issue of ‘ROOM Space Journal of Asgardia’.

In ‘Rule of law vital for humanity’s sustainability and survival’, Prof Jakhu examines the necessary legal frameworks needed to avoid potential doomsday scenarios and proposes that a new international legal order for outer space should also recognise that reckless and intentional creation of space debris is “a crime against humanity”.

Prof Jakhu’s article is one of six published in this issue based on presentations at the first Asgardia Space Science & Investment Congress (ASIC) held in Darmstadt, Germany, in October.

As its theme ‘Paving the Road to Living in Space’ suggests, ASIC’s goal was to offer a strategic pathway to the future, homing in on the interconnected themes of the extraordinary science and technology required to support permanent space habitats and the first humans born in space.

With around 150 specialist attendees from around the globe it was something of a niche congress headed up by Asgardia Science Minister Prof Floris Wuyts, a world-leading human physiology specialist from the University of Antwerp in Belgium.

ROOM’s cross-section of Special Reports from ASIC are selected from more than 50 presentations, each of which provided an insight into one of the challenging themes discussed in talks, panel sessions and posters.

A core vision of Asgardia the Space Nation is to achieve the first birth of a child in space and, in doing so, progress towards its long term strategy of creating off-world human settlements.

To further this goal, challenging issues relating to radiation and artificial gravity need to be addressed and ASIC was the first such event created specifically to allow world-leading scientists already working in these areas to come together to present and discuss their research.

Whilst space is both inspirational and motivational, offering immense possibilities for the future, success will depend on the vision and success of entrepreneurs such as Jeff Manber of Nanoracks (‘Commercialising space exploration and development’) and financial experts such as Seraphim Capital’s Mark Boggett, who provides valuable insights into the space funding landscape in ‘Venture capital investment in space’.

Advanced technology is another vital part of the mix; Tigran Mkhoyan focuses on the ‘Coriolis effect in rotating space platforms’ whilst Nissem Abdeljelil, of the National Center for Nuclear Science & Technologies in Tunisia, addresses the potential of using ionising radiation to manage biofilm contamination in ‘Surviving bacteria in space’.

ASIC discussed everything from creating artificial gravity and combating radiation to a birth in space, as well as considering how to secure the investment and develop the technologies to achieve it all.

Editorial by Clive Simpson in the Winter 2019 edition of ROOM Space Journal

In space as it is on Earth

Image: James Vaughan

IN ITS relatively short, six-decade history space exploration and its commercial applications have come to be perceived as cutting-edge, inspirational and a hugely beneficial pursuit for humankind in general.

But one of the biggest challenges faced today by the global space community and its new frontier entrepreneurs is arguably one of the least glamorous. How to deal with the increasing volume of space junk and debris orbiting Earth?

The dangers stacking up in Earth orbit are largely the result of the old “use it and throw it
away” mentality prevalent throughout the early decades of space exploration, although certainly not unique to the Space Age.

Take a look at the detritus created by a modern, technologically literate human society right across our 21st century planet and you will see that such a throwaway culture seems firmly embedded in the human psyche.

But given our ever-growing reliance on orbiting technology, ensuring the lifetime safety of flight for satellites and future astronauts is now more important than ever because, if left unchecked, the dangers posed by space debris will rise exponentially.

A cascading debris event - the spontaneous timing of which is wholly unpredictable by its nature - could have a devastating effect on the space infrastructure we have come to rely on so much.

Even as we transition from ‘old space’ to ‘NewSpace’ the preponderance of space debris shows little sign of abating. Despite some welcome initiatives, practical answers are still largely in their infancy.

So, if we want to maintain a rapidly evolving space programme that is both everyday and frontier, dealing with a problem of this magnitude can no longer be just an altruistic, desirable goal to be addressed “at some point in the future”. Space is too valuable for that.

Time is short but if we establish and adhere to basic guidelines, solutions are just about achievable. The space debris problem needs a two-pronged approach - cleaning up the junk we’ve already created and establishing international agreements to prevent it getting worse.

Our technological and commercial futures are at stake and the onus is on the whole space community to ensure the mess we’ve created on Earth isn’t replicated in orbit around our planet. Ultimately, safety in space is key for all operators and so far remedial actions are not being agreed or put in place anything like as quickly as they should be.

If it can’t be re-entered at the end of its useful life the ultimate goal for anything that goes into Earth orbit is to “retain, re-use and recycle”. But, of course, it is so often a question of commercial priorities - and looking after one’s own space junk doesn’t really pay.

The special series of articles on the following pages in this issue of ROOM is a welcome addition to the space debris debate. Each article addresses a different aspect and together they highlight the problems, challenges and some of the potential solutions.

Just as it is on Earth, now it is in space. And when it comes to anthropogenic space debris the question has to be asked: are we doing too little too late?

Foreword from the Spring 2019 edition of ROOM - The Space Journal