Forecasting the unpredictable

 

It’s easy to think of space as distant, something “out there” and far removed from our everyday lives. But in reality, Earth sits within the outer atmosphere of the Sun – and that means we’re constantly exposed to its moods.

As I explored in my recent (Spring 2025) article for ROOM Space Journal, the growing risk posed by solar storms is something we can’t afford to ignore, especially as solar activity ramps up heading toward its next peak in 2025.

Solar storms, or geomagnetic storms, are the result of explosive bursts of energy and charged particles from the Sun, often in the form of coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

When these clouds of plasma reach Earth, they collide with our planet’s magnetic field and can have serious consequences – not just for satellites and astronauts in space, but for the technology we depend on here on the ground.

The most powerful recorded storm, known as the Carrington Event of 1859, caused telegraph systems to spark, fail and in, some cases, catch fire. If something of that magnitude happened today, the impact would be far worse – potentially knocking out power grids, communications systems and disrupting financial markets and aviation.

Our modern world depends on satellites for everything from navigation and internet access to weather forecasting, global banking and national security. We’re far more vulnerable now than we were in 1859 and I wanted to highlight in the article just how interconnected – and fragile – these systems are.

Even a moderate solar storm can cause GPS errors, disrupt aircraft communications on polar routes, or degrade satellite performance. A more powerful storm could take down satellites altogether or induce surges in power grids, leading to blackouts across large regions. The more we depend on space-based infrastructure, the more we stand to lose.

While we’ve made some progress in monitoring solar activity, we’re still not great at forecasting. Tools like NASA’s Parker Solar Probe, SOHO and DSCOVR satellites help scientists track solar conditions in real time, but long-term prediction – on the scale of weeks or months – remains elusive.

The gap between awareness and preparedness is what concerns me most. Many critical services, including some power and satellite operators, are beginning to implement protective measures. But as I discovered while researching the article, there’s still a lack of global coordination, standards, or a unified plan for how we might respond to a truly disruptive solar event.

In the UK, the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre monitors the Sun and provides alerts, and solar storms are now recognised as a top-tier threat on the UK’s National Risk Register.

That’s a good start. But at a global level, we're still playing catch-up. There’s a real need for coordinated international investment in forecasting, infrastructure resilience and public awareness.

Writing this article was a stark reminder. We are quite literally living in the atmosphere of a star. And that star, while life-giving, is also volatile.

As we send ever more satellites into Earth orbit, and as industries, economies, and daily life rely more on space infrastructure, space weather becomes a shared risk that we can’t ignore.

It’s not about fear – it’s about foresight. Solar storms may sound like the stuff of science fiction, but they’re very real. The next big one isn’t a matter of if, but when.

If you’re interested in the full article, it’s available in the latest issue of ROOM Space Journal. It’s a timely piece, and I hope it adds to the growing conversation around space sustainability and resilience in the space age.

The article was sparked by ‘Life in the Sun’s Atmosphere: From Disruption to Resilience’, a photography-led science communication project by award-winning photographer and creative strategist, Max Alexander.

It was launched at Lloyds of London in March and focuses on the disruption that space weather can and will have on the Earth’s infrastructure and networks.

The Sun is on an 11-year cycle which is building to ‘solar maximum’ later in 2025, when the Sun is at its most active and the threat of damage and disruption from space weather is at its highest.