If leaving me is easy

THROUGH the lens of the global Covid-19 pandemic the uncertainty delivered by the EU referendum exactly four years ago today (17 June 2016) now seems to be growing worse by the day. And, for a government determined to follow its Brexit ideology at all costs, an unexpected virus has been the perfect smokescreen.

Back in 2016, promises proffered by the Vote Leave campaign won the day, albeit by the slimmest of margins. Those promises, however, have not only failed to materialise but have largely been exposed as a cache of blatant lies.

Despite the severest of economic storms generated by the coronavirus pandemic, it would seem that the British government, under the leadership of Boris Johnson, is happy to pursue either of two suicidal options - the most basic of severance arrangements with the EU or no deal at all.

With a final deadline for agreement all but ignored, Britain as a country stands on a precipice and is in grave danger of being driven into a black hole by manipulative and evil forces. Anyone who understands the physics of black holes will know there is no return from such a cosmic catastrophe.

Four years ago the PR spin and slogans of Vote Leave were carefully created to tap into a public mood of general dissatisfaction.

Blaming just about everything that was wrong with the country on a beleaguered EU worked well and one of the most dishonest and manipulative campaigns in political history, which also broke so many rules and regulations in the process, won the day.

In reality, extreme wealth and greed were the poisonous roots of a long-festering anti-EU drive. Much of this stemmed from the long anticipated ‘Anti Tax Avoidance Directive’ designed to ensure mega companies and billionaires pay a fair share of tax in their country of residence or operation, rather than be able to shift it to tax havens.

Surely this was a logical and sensible piece of legislation? But when this new directive was finally approved by 27 of the then 28 EU nations, it was the UK that abstained.

Since 2016, the real Brexit has gradually unfolded scene by scene, a tragedy of self-inflicted deprivation - the loss of rights, freedoms and privileges; the loss of standards and ethics; the loss of opportunity, jobs and prosperity; the loss of relationships, reputation and influence; the loss of dignity, humanity and diversity.

In complete opposite to the trite referendum campaign slogan “taking back control”, it has already heralded the loss of many of the country’s fundamental democracies and international respect and influence.

And, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis, Brexit is on course to cost the UK more than its combined total of payments to the European Union budget over the past 47 years.

Four years on, as we look back with hindsight, one cannot fail to be struck by the transformation of politics and society. The Johnson government continues to put its pure Brexit ideology before the good of the country.

Now it hails a liberated UK. But if further chaos ensues from the start of next year when the transition period ends you can be sure the narrative will shift, probably to blame Covid-19 and the EU at the same time. To date Brexit has changed everything and served up nothing.

Happy EU referendum anniversary everyone!

Blunderbuss government

STORM clouds gather in the background as the UK government continues to blunder its way through the coronavirus pandemic in a manner than seems bizarrely incompetent at best and sinisterly corrupt at worst. 

If it continues on this track Boris Johnson and his entourage will have pretty much crucified the country and its economy by the end of the year.

The current hapless and increasingly desperate situation is eloquently summed up by an editorial in The Guardian newspaper yesterday (15 March). For the record it is reproduced in full below, and there is a link at the end to the original article.

"When the story of the coronavirus pandemic is written, the verdict on Boris Johnson’s government is likely to be damning. Mr Johnson has made mistake after mistake, for which the country has paid a very high price. The prime minister is right in a sense that he presides over a “world-beating” performance: with 64,000 excess deaths, that is one excess death for every 1,000 people, the UK has recorded the largest global spike in deaths compared with the average yearly death toll; and the country will suffer the deepest depression of any developed economy.

Such a claim can be made because there’s no need to wait until all the facts are known. The gaffes are hiding in plain sight. Britain does not require the crisis to subside to analyse the country’s performance. The distinctive British response to this global challenge is one of missed opportunities and dismal misjudgments.

The UK went into lockdown too late, a decision that the former government modeller Neil Ferguson thinks has cost tens of thousands of lives – because the higher the coronavirus infection rate when restrictions were imposed, the higher the death rate. Then the country shut down its testing regime too soon, leaving it unable to track the speed and spread of the virus. During February and March, opportunities to suppress the spread of infection by introducing travel restrictions and quarantine requirements were missed, allowing the infection to be brought into the UK on at least 1,300 occasions.

Entering the lockdown late cost lives, and leaving it early risks more needless deaths. Britain is opening up before dropping its alert level, because the will to hold out evaporated when Mr Johnson did not sack his chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, for breaching lockdown rules. Sacrifice could be borne as long as it was felt to be fair.

What Britain is dealing with is a government that has blundered, and continues to blunder. Which cabinet minister is responsible for the official guidance that instructed hospitals to discharge the elderly to care homes when testing and personal protective equipment was non-existent? Who has signed off on the policy to hand over contracts to private companies without competitive tendering or even a cursory check on whether they are up to the job? Which minister decided that local authorities who regularly manage outbreaks of meningitis and sexually transmitted diseases were not needed for the delayed test-and-trace system?

These are the reflexes of unthinking Conservative politicians, who view trade unions, local government leaders and professional bodies as powerful interest groups and influential lobbies to be thwarted, not listened to. In reality, most were attempting to help the government out of a hole by asking it to stop digging. What Covid-19 has revealed is who really makes society work and the value of public servants prepared to put their lives on the line. What the government does with that knowledge will tell the public about the true nature of those that govern it. It is an insult that foreign NHS staff and carers are still being charged for using the health service, despite the prime minister’s pledge to scrap these fees.

The buck stops at Downing Street, which was responsible for the discredited policy of herd immunity and the late introduction of the lockdown. The quickest way back to normality is by controlling the spread of the virus. The prime minister must recognise that mistakes were made and learn from them. The questions of what happened, why did it happen and what can be done to prevent this from happening again need to be answered. It is bizarre that Mr Johnson has precipitately announced a race review, one condescendingly aimed at ending a sense of victimisation, before confirming a public inquiry into the government’s handling of the pandemic. There will be real trouble if the prime minister refuses a reckoning with the truth."

Editorial, The Guardian, 15 June 2020

MP's vague promises

GRANTHAM & Stamford MP Gareth Davies (my local MP) received more than 600 emails from constituents complaining about the actions of government chief advisor Dominic Cummings.

In a reply on Friday (29 May) sent to all the correspondents revealed that only a few of them had supported prime minister Boris Johnson’s stance to keep his advisor in post.

But the MP declined to say what his own position was on the crisis that engulfed the government the weekend before.

“I have received well over 600 emails from constituents containing a variety views, stories and opinions,” he wrote.

“Given the volume of correspondence I have not written a personalised response to each and every one but I reiterate that your email has been read.

“Rest assured that these are views which will certainly be shared in specific discussions with the government.”

Mr Davies (36) admitted in his letter there has been a lot of anger regarding Mr Cummings and the decision he took to travel to Durham with his family at the height of the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK.

Across the country the furore over the chief advisor’s breach of his own rules prompted tens of thousands of voters to flood their MPs’ inboxes.

According to figures collected by The Guardian newspaper, the average number of emails received on the matter by Conservative  MPs was 590.

And several MPs in marginal seats said they had received more than 1,000 emails about the case, in some cases dwarfing their majority.

“As a relatively new MP, I hope that constituents can see that I have sought be a very active constituency representative,” added Mr Davies.

“It is in this vein, that I commit to ensuring that your views are heard at the highest levels of government.”

Lockdown lunacy

THE Covid-19 pandemic has been the ultimate test for any government. And by just about any measure you care to use the UK government has spectacularly failed - practically, strategically and morally.

Let’s be under no illusion. The lockdown easing announcements of this week have not come about because the time or the conditions are right.

Sadly, in the 24 hours up to Thursday (28 May), 256 more people across the UK died. Johnson says that meets his test for easing the lockdown.

But compare that to a country like South Korea where 269 people have died during the whole of the pandemic.

In other countries where lockdown measures are being eased the daily death tolls are being measured in tens not hundreds still.

For comparison, coronavirus deaths yesterday across Europe on Friday (29 May): Spain 2, Italy 87, Germany 24, France 52, Turkey  28, Belgium  42, Sweden 84, Portugal 14, Ireland 6, Poland 13, Romania 13, Hungary 8, the Netherlands 28 - and the UK 324.

In addition, given that the estimates for daily new coronavirus cases in England are approx 8-9000 a day and the ‘R’ rate in many places is hovering only just below one, it feels like the mistakes of early March are in danger of being repeated.

Let's be in no doubt. Lockdown measures in England are being eased now because popular headlines are needed to buy Johnson credit and time.

In this context, it is essential to understand Johnson and his government don't really give a stuff about the British people.

We're in the middle of a pandemic but there's only one real item on their agenda - to leave the EU transition period on 31 December without an EU trade deal.

Next week, when parliament returns, only 50 MPs will be allowed in the chamber. The old way of voting has stopped and the remote access system suspended but no new way of voting has been decided.

Conveniently, it means the opposition’s job will be that much harder and the government’s power that much greater.

This is what “taking back control” looks like and it should matter to us all. At a UK-wide level, the House of Commons is the only democratically-elected institution in the country and if nearly 600 of our MPs are shut out of Parliament, democracy is effectively partially suspended.

Then, at yesterday’s daily press briefing the prime minister told journalists what questions they may and may not ask, and told his medical advisers which questions they may and may not answer. Dictatorship is creeping in.

And, of course, the Cummings episode of the past week makes a mockery of the populist claim of an anti-elitist government looking out for the good of the public at large.

The idea that a country, battered by a pandemic, should be led into the calamity of an EU no deal in just six months' time - or even just to the shocks of moving from single market membership to a limited trade agreement - is seriously crazy.

Coronavirus is already reshaping the political landscape. For any honest government, it should also be reshaping the arguments for an EU transition period extension which has to be decided on by mid-June.

Johnson and the Brexiters would love to pull things back to the heady ‘will of the people’ days. But, to coin an over-used phrase this week by you know who, the people have “moved on”.

Almost everyday the British prime minister is exposed as being completely out of his depth in almost every respect, heading a government which looks exhausted, incompetent and bereft of common sense.

As Chris Grey, Professor of Organisation Studies at Royal Holloway, University of London, says: "It is seemingly intent on acting only in the interests of a small faction of fanatical nihilists.

"To drag the country towards an even greater disaster at the end of the year on the back of political ideology becomes more grotesque by the day in every conceivable way -  democratically, intellectually, economically and morally."

Further reading:
The truth about Dominic Cummings 
Not moving on, not going away
 

Blue for danger

A COUPLE of weeks on from my ‘Car crash politics’ blog article and, despite any optimism or benefit of the doubt, little seems to have changed - particularly in the fantasy world of Westminister spin.

The Johnson government continues to prove itself a master manipulator of the media agenda and thus continues to mis-inform public opinion, a trait it started long before it ever came to power, if you get my drift.

Yesterday’s tawdry, yet skillful, PR manoeuvres highlight this yet again in an unambiguously sinister way to a still largely unsuspecting and sycophantic public. However, one suspects the tide will eventually have to turn.

Given Johnson’s blatant playing of the media in his previous life, this should come as no surprise to any astute observer of current British politics. He liked to call himself a “journalist” but in reality he was never more than an eagliterian over-inflated columnist. And he got the sack for blatant lying. Now he likes to call himself “prime minister”.

Yesterday’s actions were breath-taking in their craven alacrity because it was the day of all days when the tripmeter of recorded deaths from covid-19 tipped the UK into the worst in Europe category, and second only in the world to the United States.

Unsurprisingly, and true to form on such an auspicious day, Johnson was nowhere to be seen and so the daily Downing Street presser was hosted by the hapless Raab, who shamelessly tried to hide the growing magnitude of the UK death toll by suggesting it wasn’t fair to make country-by-country comparisons at this stage.

Acutely aware that all of this would normally make front-page headlines the next day and be the lead item on television news programmes, the government’s slick PR machine masterminded by Cummins had a devious plan waiting in the wings for such a time as this.

Just as the figures were being “announced” at the presser, a reporter from the Daily 'Torygraph' (aka Daily Telegraph) was receiving a private briefing from a Downing Street insider about a key member of SAGE who had transgressed the golden rules of social distancing some four weeks previously.

The story about the resignation of Neil Ferguson, who had “entertained” his lover, was destined to push the increasingly tragic coronavirus death figures off the front pages and top of the news bulletins. A perfect bit of PR timing and manipulation.

I certainly do understand that Ferguson's actions genuinely upset some. But make no mistake his story shouldn't be on any front page, especially at the expense of the UK's covid-19 death figure.

It does look like - from the dates of when the "trysts" took place - that someone had waited to hand it over to the Telegraph, calculating the best moment to publish it and in the process help bury bad news.

On the BBC, morning bulletins were calling Prof Ferguson's visitor “his married lover”. Not so may days before the same airwaves were gushingly celebrating the birth of Carrie Simon's baby by the prime minister, without a the merest mention of you know what.

Ferguson was obviously wrong to break the lockdown and so probably had to resign. But remember cabinet minister Robert Jenrick’s ‘illegal tryst’ a few weeks back? Unlike Ferguson, he’s actually part of the government that introduced the lockdown rules but he didn’t resign (yet). Double standards or just rank hypocrisy?

It seems that everything about this story and the ensuing flood of right-wing hate on social media for ‘Dr Doom’ screams that this was a deliberate ‘political’ operation mounted by people who seek an early end to the lockdown.

If the UK ends up with the highest death toll in the world relative to population size, this won’t be bad luck or because of the hard work of NHS staff, carers and the like. It will largely be down to the strategy of our government.

There's an almost biblical irony that the Conservatives under Johnson "took back control" of the UK on 31 January when Brexit became a reality and then pretty much lost it again to a microbial life-form exactly 40 days later.

I have no joy in seeing that Britain now has worst figures of any country in Europe. If only it were different. I wish the government had done well and proved of me and all who doubted them wrong. But in this sad and difficult time, negligence and ideology haven taken preference over collective safety and public health. I can only say expect more of the same.

Car crash politics

THE UK government’s handling of the virus pandemic has been breath-takingly incompetent at almost every stage. It may sound harsh but when the facts are reviewed it is not hard to reach such a conclusion.

Johnson and his cabinet have always claimed they are being “led by science” not politics. But many scientists who are not in the government’s inner circle have voiced serious concerns and expressed alternative views.

And what exactly is scientific about having no mass testing? A lack of personal protection equipment for NHS staff? No protection for our care homes? And no social distancing for seven weeks after the first case of coronavirus was reported in the UK?

Italy, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, France, Japan, China, South Korea all introduced measures at an early stage to try and contain the spread of coronavirus. In the UK, Johnson’s initial response was, “Take it on the chin.”

The government's daily press conferences and media interviews by ministers have largely become an enraging exercise in fluent, complacent, platitudinous stonewalling. No answers to important questions, just evasive promises along the lines that everything will improve sometime soon.

Much of it boils down to a government that fundamentally objects to scrutiny -  the Commons has sat for one full month in Johnson’s first 10 as premier. And one of the reasons for this is because it is founded on political ideologies. For a decade it hasn’t valued or protected the people the country depends on, and it has spent years weakening the NHS and social care. Now, faced with the real world, it is struggling to accept its own culpability.

Why, for example, are there still around 15,000 people a day flying into the UK. That's the equivalent of 105,000 passengers a week, including those flying in from countries with their own serious Covid-19 outbreaks, like the US, China, Spain and Italy.

Even America has banned entry for people from Britain and elsewhere in Europe, whereas the UK has no such limits in place and deems it not important to impose health checks or a period in quarantine on people arriving at UK airports.

It seems increasingly apparent that this is a single-pony, Brexit-driven government with no script or comprehension for serious subjects, and is at its flagrant happiest when dishing out slogan politics.

A lamentable conclusion to draw from the UK government’s overall handling of the crisis so far is that its approach has appeared largely reactive and laissez faire, at least on the surface. In the corridors of money and power, however, there may be more sinister political forces at work.

In recent days it has seemed disingenuous for ministers to repeatedly infer that the British public are not capable of engaging in or understanding a proper debate about how a Covid-19 exit strategy is going to be managed in the weeks to come? As a result, one might also be inclined to conclude that UK plc currently has no plausible lock-down exit strategy.

If anything, public compliance with the lock-down has been more solid than anticipated and there is no evidence that people will stop complying if ministers start talking openly about how and when some restrictions might be lifted. Democracy entails debate.

Inspite of Covid-19, the government has also been adamant it sees no reason to change its looming Brexit trajectory, even though we’re less than nine months away from the transition period ending with no future trade terms in place.

The consequences of such a final EU departure are now magnified in economic terms because they will come on top of the grisly impact of the pandemic, as outlined by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this week.

The government’s proposition is that, despite a predicted (albeit possibly short term) 35 percent fall in GDP, a rise in unemployment to maybe three million and annihilation of public finances, it remains the inviolable “will of the people” to add the effects of Brexit (with or without a deal) to the devastation being wrought by the virus pandemic.

As the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) put it earlier this week in advising an extension - “why make a tough situation even tougher?” With coronavirus still rampant and economies tanking there are surely no rational arguments against agreeing an extension to allow time for a proper trade deal.

As summer 2020 unfolds, the days and weeks ahead will shine an ever more critical spotlight on Johnson and his egalitarian government’s handling of the pandemic. And it may yet prove to be one of the most egregious and catastrophic failures of democratic leadership in our lifetime.

But given Johnson's shoddy and disingenuous performance on other issues - such as on Brexit, immigration policy and even his response to the devastating winter flooding across the UK - it can surely come as no surprise that the UK is rapidly staking claim to be the poor man of Europe when it comes to its abject handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Sunday Times (19 April 2020) -  38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster